NASA managers have been asked by NASA Administrator Michael Griffin to examine how the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) could be extended beyond its planned 2010 cutoff date to provide manned space launch capabilities to the International Space Station until 2015 (or so) when the Shuttle’s replacement, Constellation, is now scheduled to be available.
Both Presidential candidates, Obama and McCain, have indicated that they’d like to see some interim (2010 to 2015) capabilities to the tune of providing an extra $2 billion. The study, which is due by the end of September, is being taken as more than just a “contingency plan.” NASA, however, is not necessarily keen on taking this action. Safety issues, manpower requirements, and infrastructure capabilities are three big issues that will have to be addressed in this assessment. But, the alternative of relying on the Russian Soyuz for U.S. manned launch capabilities has not been highly valued either. This is especially relevant with heightened U.S.-Russian tensions following the Russian invasion of Georgia and the continuing aggressiveness of Russia due to its increasing financial independence based on its oil shipments to Europe.
Initial studies are examining how one of the three remaining Shuttles might be retired and used for spare parts for the other two. Safety has to be the preeminent consideration in all of these studies. And safety might be costly, especially in an environment where NASA Shuttle staffing levels might be reduced due to Constellation pre-planning and normal or planned attrition. McCain already has asked NASA to postpone by a year its dismantling of the SSP. With only two usable Shuttles, a planned extension program would only consist of two to three launches per year.
I’m surprised that this has not been an option all along. While independent launch vendors might have provided some glimmer of launch capabilities for the post-Shuttle era, the recent failure of the SpaceX stifled some of that hope. Did NASA managers really believe that they could survive politically for a six-year drought of manned launch capabilities in the current highly charged space era, with multiple countries rapidly building up their space programs?
The risks, of course, are extremely high with using an over 20-year-old launch platform for another 10 years. It will be interesting how strong a stance the NASA managers take and how many resources would be needed to provide this extension. If they’re worth anything, they probably should plan on capabilities beyond 2015 as well since programs of this complexity rarely come in on time—Constellation was already extended a year from 2014 to 2015 within the past few months.
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