R&D's Hot Technologies for 2005
The readers and editors of R&D Magazine identify technologies that
are expected to see rapid growth and high investments in 2005.
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Fuel cells and nanotechnology were the "hottest" technologies likely to experience rapid growth and high investment in 2005, according to a reader survey by the editors of R&D Magazine. |
Technology is the driver that powers growth in most of today"s global economies.
In that global marketplace, the players are changing rapidly as former third world
countries assume leadership roles in manufacturing and technology. The technologies
themselves are similarly changing as some become mature enough to power commercial
products and others move beyond their initial hype to demonstrate dramatic and
practical performance improvements over existing techniques.
As 2004 ends and 2005 begins, the editors of R&D Magazine outline
some of the technologies expected to be in the spotlight in 2005. Three of these
technologies—fuel cells, RNAi, and immersion lithography—are detailed
in sidebars by R&D"s editors, while the results of a reader
survey are summarized in the accompanying text and charts.
More than 225 readers responded to a Web-based survey performed by the editors
of R&D in November 2004. Each respondent was asked to choose five
technologies. According to the survey, the top three technologies expected to
drive investment and rapid growth in 2005 are fuel cells, nanotechnology, and
anti-bioterrorism devices. Selected from more than 65 technology choices, these
technologies mirror three different technology trends, one being an effort to
offset energy dependence and increasing pollution, another being a commercial
exploitation of an emerging technology, and the third being development of defenses
against external attacks.
Numerous technologies, while mentioned frequently in technical reports and the
media, were selected less often by the respondents. Technologies chosen by 9%
to 12% of the respondents included stem cells, proteomics, genomics, MEMS, and
solar power. Only 5% to 9% of respondents included high-performance and GRID computing,
cloning, simulation and modeling, and OLEDs. At the bottom of the list, were mechanical
and physical test systems, several versions of microscopy, and various basic materials.
In a separate question, nearly 60% of the survey respondents revealed that they
had some involvement in the "hot technologies" they selected for 2005.
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Survey respondents feel that it takes an average of 4.5 yr for a "hot technology" to become a commercially viable product. | Two of the top four "hot technologies" were based on nanotechnology—nanotech
overall was selected by 40% of the respondents and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) was
selected by 21%. Independent market research surveys confirm the strength of the
nanotechnology sector over the next several years. FTM Consulting, Inc., Hummelstown,
Pa., for example, forecasts CNTs to have more than $550 million in integrated
circuit applications by 2009 with an 82% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for
the following five years.
Lux Research Inc., a New York-base research and consulting firm focused on nanotech,
expects worldwide R&D spending on nanotechnology to rise 10% in 2004 to $8.6
billion, with corporations spending more than $3.8 billion and the U.S. government
spending $4.6 billion in R&D (which includes the $3.7 billion, four-yr National
Nanotech Initiative spending). Top nanotech start-up companies that focus on specialty
chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are currently reporting $10 to
$20 million in annual revenue, according to the Lux Research group.
Development times and cycles
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Survey respondents said that average likelihood of a "hot technology" becoming a commercially successful product is 59%. Less than 4% say that the hot technology has only a 10% to 25% chance of being successful. | The time that these "hot technologies" will take to transform themselves into
commercially viable products will take an average of 4.5 yr according to the
R&D Magazine survey respondents. More than half of the participants
said that it would take less than 4 yr and about 20% said it would take more
than 6 yr. No respondents said that it would take longer than 15 yr and only
4% said it would take more than 10 yr.
The average time that it took these "hot technologies" to become
"hot" (from inception to now) was about 5.7 yr, according to the
survey. Two-thirds of the respondents said it took less than 6 yr and 25% of
those surveyed said it took more than 8 yr. Overall, from inception to commercial-
ization of these hot technologies, the average R&D time totaled 10.2 yr-well
within the commonly accepted and traditional new technology development cycle.
While all of the 65+ technologies the readers had to choose from were some factor
of high- or low-level hot technology, they were still all hot technologies in
their own right. When the respondents were asked about how easy it was for them
to obtain funding for the "hot technologies" that they worked on,
more than 83% indicated that it was either somewhat or very difficult to obtain
a financial investment in their technology, only 17% said it was easy.
Fickle technologies
While nanotech receives strong reviews in both the R&D reader survey and
market research studies, biotech receives only lukewarm values in both. As previously
mentioned, stem cells were chosen as a hot technology by only 12% of respondents—a
relatively mediocre rating. Proteomics was also chosen by 12% of those surveyed,
and genomics and cell biology by 11% each. Cloning was chosen by 8% and metabonomics
by just 2% of the respondents.
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On average, it takes nearly six years for a "hot technology" to become "hot" from the date that it was initially discovered or developed. |
The market research indices for biotech had been in a slow decline (about 5%)
for most of 2004, but "took a turn for the better in November with the
re-election of President Bush, the passage of California"s $3 billion
Stem Cell Research Initiative, and a general market upswing," says G.
Steven Burrill, president of Burrill & Co., a San Francisco-based life sciences
merchant bank. Wisconsin and New Jersey also passed stem cell/biotech research
initiatives ($750 million and $48 million, respectively), which also helped
raise the overall mood.
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More than 80% of the survey respondents find that it is difficult to obtain investments in a new "hot technology." |
The semiconductor and telecom markets and technologies also are lukewarm for much
of the world, except for Asia, where substantial investments are being made in
production capabilities for both semiconductor and telecom devices. Reports indicate
that three new multi-billion dollar 300-mm fabs will be online in China by 2006,
with another in the planning stage and another in India. This may prove to be
disadvantageous unless the domestic markets in these countries grows beyond the
forecasts, since there already is an overcapacity in the marketplace for many
semiconductor and telecom devices.
—Tim Studt
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