April 7, 2008

FutureWorld

The future holds some exciting and often frightening scenarios that are reflected in the advances of today’s technologies. Computers, for example, are often portrayed in sci-fi literature and movies as threats against the integrity and autonomous well-being of mankind, as illustrated in the Terminator; 2001: A Space Odyssey (with the Hal 9000), and Colossus: The Forbin Project movies.

Futurist Ray Kurzweil, in his 1999 The Age of Spiritual Machines, predicts that by 2099 “there is no longer any clear distinction between humans and computers,” and that “machine-based intelligences derived from extended models of human intelligence claim to be human (by 2099).” But just as in Aldous Huxley’s 1958 Brave New World Revisted where he found that technology and society were changing faster than he originally thought in his 1932 Brave New World look into the future, it’s likely that Kurzweil’s technology forecast will come about sooner that he expected just nine years ago.

The real-world basis of these extended scenarios is clearly exemplified in IBM’s research labs where its scientists continue to push the frontiers of computer science with their Blue Gene, Blue Cloud, and Blue Brain projects. Over the past several years, these projects and their supporting technologies were often completed in less time than their developers predicted as well.

Is it possible that Colossus-, SkyNet-, or Hal-type computers could control society in the not too distant future to put a “logical mind” in control of overpopulation, global warming, viral epidemics, energy shortages, or political upheavals? I personally don’t think so because of the extreme complexity and breadth of the system that would be needed to implement those controls. But, then everything in our world is already beginning to be linked/controlled via the Internet, with even faster wireless upgrades on the horizon, so maybe even that limitation is moot. Kurzweil’s target of 2099 is just 91 years from now and 91 years ago (1917) few would have considered a threat from a self-aware computer that could control all aspects of society, let alone computers.

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