The 2008 forecast, like many of its predecessors, has been based in part upon the views, experiences, and opinions of internal Battelle staff. Just as the IRI survey reflects an array of viewpoints from different industries, so also does the internal Battelle survey draw upon the views and experiences of staff who are closely involved with the conduct of research that supports a wide range of government and industrial clients. Several issues related to likely R&D practices and priorities elicited the following responses and viewpoints.
To what extent will R&D programs which are responsive to the Sept. 11th attack, including the evolution/development of homeland security initiatives, continue to impact the R&D budget of the federal agencies?
Based on public perception and agency plans, homeland security-related R&D should be seeing significant increases for all types of efforts in a number of agencies (DHS, CDC, EPA, DOT). However, even this work hasn’t been immune to the slower growth, flat funding, or even cuts stemming from tight overall budgets and the increasing and ongoing costs of the war in Iraq. Some efforts may be directed toward labeling issues as “homeland security-related” (e.g., food security, consumer product safety) to qualify for support.
There may be an increase in R&D in “multi-use” technologies that can be used for military, intelligence, and homeland security applications (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicle-related research).
The continual intertwining of energy issues as “security issues” (i.e., reducing use of OPEC oil, potential disruption in energy supply) will lead to some increases in R&D though the form and function is still unclear.
R&D funding for DOD efforts that don’t directly address the war in Iraq or homeland security are also flat to declining—it is difficult to get any new initiatives launched, especially those with long-term horizons.
In what specific scientific or technical areas will government research programs expand in the next few years?
• Energy-related: big renewable energy push; carbon capture and sequestration; bio/chemical conversion of biomass (for energy and chemical feedstocks); fuel cells and other portable power; climate change research; roll out of next generation nuclear power; broadly supportive nanotech efforts.
• National security-related: lightweight armor/blast protection; real-time surveillance, monitoring, and targeting technologies (largely unmanned); transportation security; broadly supportive nanotech efforts; information processing and security; continued work in microelectronics/miniaturization; remote sensing and integration.
• Health- and life science-related: continued major thrusts in cancer and HIV/AIDS; renewed efforts in other infectious/pandemic diseases; toxicology-related efforts; diseases of aging; medical countermeasures to WMD; broadly supportive nanotech efforts
What other factors would you expect to influence the amount and directions of federally-supported R&D?
The interrelated needs of modernization of the military hardware and the assurance of reliable energy supplies will likely have a major influence on the directions and amounts of R&D support from the federal government. In addition, the continuing threat from a variety of terrorist techniques will require greater attention to defensive programs aimed at preventing/responding in the area of biological or viral attacks and credible threats to the food supply and infrastructure vulnerability. And all of these factors—along with others—will be influenced by the necessity of paying all other accumulated bills and enhancing the revenue stream. The forthcoming national elections will have an eventual significant impact upon how all of the issues can be addressed.
It is likely that much of the R&D that is directed toward the acquisition of major mission-agency hardware will be conducted by contractors, with the eventual cost of the R&D being built into the price of delivered products. This variation of the commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) practice will reduce the apparent amount of R&D that is funded by the federal government, but will be offset in terms of the price of final products. In many respects, this is directly similar to the supply-chain R&D that is employed in industry.
Finally, combined initiatives in basic research, education, and the America COMPETES type of national program will—to the extent consistent with budget constraints—provide the kind of necessary baseline to enhance the national commitment to research and innovation.
What major challenges will face government agencies in their selection of research areas and in obtaining sufficient funds for the conduct or support of R&D in the near future?
There is no end to the number and variety of research programs that are worthy of support—as well as those that are directed toward individual interests. The more difficult tasks relate to the necessity of the proposed work, the assessment of direct and indirect impact, and the availability of resources. Irrespective of the necessity of various research areas, almost all of these fall into the area of discretionary spending and are subject to the special pressures that are imposed by the total federal budget situation.
There are three types of infrastructure—some of it aging because of years, others become obsolete or vulnerable because of technology—that need to be addressed: (a) the physical critical infrastructure of the country, including dams, bridges, roads, power grids and the like; (b) the operational infrastructure, including military hardware and secure computer networks; and (c) human infrastructure, with emphasis on health care, the overall science and technology education system and the development of researchers, program managers, project selectors and evaluators.
These types of problems are not confined to government alone but affect all sectors. Given the major constraints that also affect all sectors (the federal budget, industrial profits, higher education support), greater efforts will be required to effect all manner of public-private partnerships and other forms of inter-sector cooperation.
What are some of the major challenges facing industries in the selection of research areas and in obtaining sufficient funds for the conduct or support of R&D in the near future?
Foreign competition and competing technologies are the most cited challenges—followed by global expansion and impact of federal deficit. Regulatory burden may add costs and hurdles to market introduction. Cost-sharing demands for federally funded R&D may limit the involvement of smaller firms. Global expansion encourages or requires R&D for the product to have local fit. Competing technologies challenge companies to have better (and more affordable) products and processes. Creating, protecting, and dominating new intellectual property (IP) is much more important to foreign competitors based on the current level of investment being made compared to like U.S. companies.
