Friendlier Arctic seas bring opportunity, and risk

Posted In: Energy

By ELIZABETH BLUEMINKAssociated Press

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

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Two rare episodes recently spotlight the new world — and its potential and perils — that is opening up the Arctic seas as global warming slowly erodes the ice cap.

One of them was a potentially fatal illness on a cruise ship in the icy Beaufort Sea, hundreds of miles from a large surgery center, and more than a thousand nautical miles from a permanent Coast Guard station.

Luckily for the crew member who was diagnosed with possible appendicitis, the 164-passenger vessel was not far from BP's massive Prudhoe Bay oil field.

A small oil-spill response boat whisked her to Prudhoe's medical clinic, where she checked out OK. No appendicitis, according to the Coast Guard.

The crew member took a flight to Barrow. The cruise ship, the Bremen, is making its way to Nome, where it will begin a new itinerary traveling through the Bering Sea, the Aleutians and on to Russia and Japan.

The second episode reflects the industrial potential of the Arctic.

A couple of German cargo ships escorted by a Russian icebreaker steamed through the Bering Strait on a journey from Japan to Siberia, and then on to Europe. They are carrying power plant equipment needed in a Siberian city. It's the first time in more than a decade that Russia has escorted cargo ships on the trade route. Cargo ships typically travel between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal in Egypt.

Welcome to the new age of the Arctic.

Arctic trade experts say that natural resource development and regional trade will open up marine shipping through the Arctic over the next decade and that many non-Arctic nations will be participating.

While Russia and Canada have established rules for Arctic transport, many worry that the United States is far behind. The U.S. Coast Guard readily acknowledges it is ill-equipped to conduct search and rescue operations in the ice or police Alaska's vast northern coast, for example.

Climate scientists have predicted the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the summer as early as 2015. That means greater marine access and longer seasons of navigation, according to the 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, published by the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental body including the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia and Sweden.

"As the ice retreats, the people advance," said Capt. Michael Terminel, who runs Edison Chouest Offshore's Alaska operation. His company is building Royal Dutch Shell's $150 million Arctic supply ship to support offshore exploration drilling in the Beaufort Sea.

The United States is behind Russia and Canada in studying the seafloor, establishing navigation rules and making other investments in the region, Terminel said.

"We just don't know what's there," he said. "We don't know what the ecosystem is."

Either way, some international shippers are finding the Arctic irresistible. By avoiding Suez, the ongoing Arctic voyage by the two German cargo vessels — the Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight — will save about 3,300 nautical miles and 400 tons of fuel, and cut the trip length from 32 to 23 days, said Niels Stoleberg, president of Beluga Group, which owns the ships.

He said Beluga plans to send six ice-worthy ships through the Northern Sea Route next year to supply the oil and gas industry in Siberia.

This year's voyages are "nothing but the beginning," Stolberg said in an e-mail.

Residents in Nome, Barrow and other Arctic coastal villages are receiving intense attention from the Coast Guard, which is hoping to establish a new base at Nome, not far from the Bering Strait. This is the choke point separating Russia from Alaska's Seward Peninsula that all vessels traveling between Asia and the Arctic must sail through.

Right now, there are no ice-worthy U.S. vessels to answer an emergency — oil spill or otherwise — in the Bering Strait. There are no internationally regulated shipping lanes, either.

In terms of strategic significance, "It's like the new Strait of Gibraltar," said Coast Guard Capt. Mike Inman.

But, Inman said, "It's an area that is ecologically sensitive, shallow and has no infrastructure. The people on both sides (Alaska and Russia) depend on subsistence hunting and fishing at a level probably much higher than anywhere else in the United States."

To the northeast, Barrow and other North Slope villages are getting increased contact from tourists and offshore oil and gas workers arriving on support vessels.

"Suddenly, new areas of ocean are exposed and potential access to resources expanded," said Edward Itta, the North Slope Borough mayor, at a recent meeting in Anchorage.

It's not just the risk of oil spills that make the villagers nervous. Residents are also worried about ships striking whales or making noise that causes them to move away from traditional hunting areas, said Cheryl Rosa, a wildlife research biologist for the borough.

She said Barrow already receives Japanese tourists on a daily basis in summer. "If it ramps up there's definitely going to have to be infrastructure adjustments."

It's unlikely that the Northeast Passage over Russia or the fabled Northwest Passage over Canada will become trade routes within the next few decades, according to the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment. The routes are shorter, but the unpredictable weather and ice make the routes too risky for shippers promising delivery on a specific date.

Instead, the uptick in Arctic traffic will mainly derive from the tourism and natural resource extraction industries, the report predicted.

Retreating ice isn't driving the increase in Arctic traffic, said Lawson Brigham, a University of Alaska Fairbanks professor who co-authored the report for the Arctic Council. The major driver is the increased exploitation of Arctic's potential oil and gas riches, especially by Russia and Norway, he said.

He added that he never expects large cruise ships — like the ones that visit the Southeast Panhandle and Prince William Sound — to travel either Arctic route.

It's also likely that, in the long run, the Northwest Passage over Canada and Alaska will be spurned by international traders, because navigation is much easier on the Russian side, according to the report.

The buzz about the Arctic has not escaped Alaska's congressional delegation, which is pushing a raft of Arctic bills this year. Among them, legislation that would authorize the Coast Guard to coordinate with other nations to place navigational aids, vessel tracking and emergency response resources in the Arctic. The bill also proposes spending $750 million to build two Coast Guard ice breakers, and provide $15 million annually for the Coast Guard to operate in the Arctic and work on the listed projects with other seafaring countries.

___

Information from: Anchorage Daily News, http://www.adn.com

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